Professor Elroy Dimson, Cambridge Judge Business School
Investors are preoccupied with the impact on financial markets of changes in central-bank interest rates. We use over a century of daily US returns together with 85 years of UK data to examine the immediate effect of rate hikes and cuts on stock and bond markets. We also look globally at the impact of interest rate changes on equity and bond returns using annual data for 21 countries from 1900 to 2015. Using a trading strategy that avoids look-ahead bias, we compare returns over entire interest rate hiking and easing cycles for equities, bonds, bills, currencies, and risk premia. We analyse long-term returns from industry sectors and factors such as size, value, carry and momentum, and also study real asset returns since 1900 on precious metals, collectibles and real estate. In all cases, hiking cycles damage your wealth compared to easing cycles.
Elroy Dimson chairs the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge Judge Business School, and is Emeritus Professor of Finance at London Business School. He is a Non-Executive Director of FTSE International, is on the Steering Committee of the Financial Economists’ Roundtable, and is an Advisory Council member for Financial Analysts Journal. He is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, Honorary Fellow of CFA UK and of the Institute of Actuaries. His PhD is from London Business School.
Professor Dimson’s books include Triumph of the Optimists, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016, the Global Investment Returns Sourcebook 2016 (all with Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton), Endowment Asset Management (with Shanta Acharya), and Financial Market History (with David Chambers, forthcoming). Publications since 2015 have been on subjects such as active ownership (Review of Financial Studies), real assets (Journal of Financial Economics), financial history (Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis), endowment strategy (Financial Analysts Journal), long-horizon investing (five book chapters), as well as case studies on manager selection and on stocks for the long run (both Harvard Business School).