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Shape of things to come


Themes: Economics and policy

Shape of things to comeAccording to Michael Kitson, University Senior Lecturer in International Macroeconomics at Cambridge Judge Business School, the recession will be deeply protracted and U-shaped, not W-shaped as some are forecasting, leaving permanent scars on the economy in the form of lost economic capacity. The financial sector will not fully recover to be as significant a share of the economy as it was pre-shock; the adverse effect on long-term investment will reduce productive capacity in the future and the country will not be allowed to draw in as much import as previously. The challenge, he explains, will be to produce strategies to replace this lost capacity.